Hope is Not a Foreign Policy » Vladimir Putin

Where’s Vladimir?

Tom Skypek — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 11:33:35 +0000

More Belligerent Rhetoric from the Kremlin

Tom Skypek — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 22:06:52 +0000

Moscow keeps upping the ante. Today, the Kremlin announced that it is willing to use means other than diplomacy to respond to further development of the U.S. missile defense system in Poland. According to the Associated Press,

Russia lashed out at the United States on Wednesday over a missile defense deal with Poland and warned ominously that Moscow’s response to further development of the missile shield would go beyond diplomacy.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry said the U.S. missile shield plans are clearly aimed at weakening Russia, calling them part of growing “U.S. efforts to change the strategic balance of power in its favor.”

Russia’s invasion of Georgia and its increasingly belligerent rhetoric highlight the challenge the next president will face in dealing with the government of Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin. Sen. McCain has been a steady voice, challenging Russian aggression from the onset of their military campaign in Georgia. Sen. Obama, on the other hand, urged both countries to “show restraint.” This is the 3:00 AM wake-up call Sen. Hillary Clinton referenced in her famous campaign advertisement, where she postulated the risks associated with electing a president as inexperienced on matters of matters of national security and foreign policy as Sen. Obama. This is a foreign policy crisis and Sen. Obama is simply outmatched. The United States needs a commander-in-chief it can trust. Sen. John McCain is that man.

Military Conflict Continues Between Russia and Georgia

Tom Skypek — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 12:38:12 +0000

Defense analysts who once believed that Dmitry Medvedev’s Kremlin would differ from Vladimir Putin’s now have their answer. Russia needs to withdraw its forces from Georgia immediately. Here’s an article from Bloomberg News:

Russia Is Waging `Full-Scale War’ Over S. Ossetia, Georgia Says
By Alex Nicholson

Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) — Georgia accused Russia of waging “full-scale war,” as Russian troops took control of the capital of the separatist South Ossetia region, rejecting calls by the international community for an immediate cease-fire.

“Georgia is under military aggression of the Russian federation,” Georgian Security Council secretary Kakha Lomaia told reporters in a conference call today.

Ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet moved toward Abkhazia, another separatist region, and Russian jets are crossing the border every 15 minutes and attacking military and civilian targets in as many as six locations simultaneously, he said. Russia’s actions amounted to “full-scale war,” Lomaia said.

Russian tanks pushed into South Ossetia and, by morning today, reinforcements backed by bombers and artillery had forced Georgian units out of the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, the Defense Ministry said on its Web site.

President George W. Bush said the fighting represented “a dangerous escalation.” He called for an “immediate halt to violence” and “an end to the Russian bombings.” Bush was speaking in Beijing where he is attending the Olympic Games.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said 1,500 civilians and 15 Russian peacekeepers have been killed so far, while Deputy Chief of the General Staff Anatoly Nogovitsyn confirmed that two Russian aircraft had been shot down. Georgia has shot down 10 planes, Lomaia said. The pilot of the 10th plane is alive and has been sent to a hospital, he said.

`Aggression’

“Whatever part of Georgia is used for this aggression is not safe,” and Russia reserves the right to attack any part of Georgia used for the offensive in South Ossetia, Lavrov said. “The source of the aggression must be hit to prevent the aggressor from doing that again,” he said.

Georgia must withdraw its forces from South Ossetia and sign a non-aggression pact with the region and then “the situation can calm down,” Lavrov said.

Russian warplanes bombed sites including the port of Poti and a military base at Senaki, in the west of the country, Georgian officials said. The town of Gori, the birthplace of late Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin, was also hit.

The conflict could endanger U.S. aspirations to secure an emerging energy corridor linking Central Asia to Europe and deals a blow to its plans for bringing the former Soviet republic into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s orbit.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said the fighting was a response to Georgia’s assault on Russian citizens and the peacekeepers Russia has had in the disputed region since the early 1990s.

State of War

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili today signed a decree declaring a state of war, Lomaia said. At least 40 Georgians, both civilian and military, have been killed, he said. This toll does not include casualties from a residential building in Gori that was bombed, he said.

South Ossetia broke away from Georgia in the early 1990s and exists now as a de facto independent state with Russian peacekeepers and economic support.

The Russian government said that 30,000 refugees had entered its territory from the region.

“The people responsible for this humanitarian catastrophe must bear responsibility for what they have done,” including under international law, Medvedev was quoted by the RIA Novosti news service as saying at a Kremlin meeting.

The conflict “absolutely” dooms Georgia’s chances for NATO membership, said Robert Hunter, U.S. ambassador to the Brussels- based alliance under President Bill Clinton and now a senior adviser at the policy-research group RAND Corp. in Washington. “You don’t bring in a country that has this sort of trouble.”

Peace Envoys

As those hopes evaporated, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice planned to send an envoy to broker a cease-fire between the sides. President George W. Bush, attending the opening ceremonies of the Beijing Olympic Games yesterday, said the U.S. backed the “territorial integrity” of Georgia.

The European Union and the Vienna-based Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which has a peacekeeping mission in Georgia, are also sending emissaries to seek a cease- fire, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said in a statement late yesterday. France, which currently holds the EU’s rotating presidency, earlier called on behalf of the EU for negotiations to end the fighting.

Deputy Secretary of State John D. Negroponte summoned Russian Charge d’Affaires Alexander Darchiyev to push for a Russian pullout, according to a statement issued yesterday by the State Department. Russia’s attacks are a “dangerous and disproportionate escalation of tension,” and the U.S. calls for an “immediate” cease-fire and withdrawal of Russian troops, Negroponte said.

Russian Energy

EU help may not be as forthcoming as Saakashvili wants in part because of European dependence on Russian energy supplies.

“Countries like Germany and France were already resistant to the idea of giving a NATO security guarantee to a country with an open dispute with Russia,” said Dominic Fean, a researcher at the French Institute of International Affairs in Paris. “I can’t see how they can get the consensus of 26 states anytime soon.”

Georgia’s Ambassador to the U.S. Vasiil Sikharulidze told Bloomberg Television the conflict would make NATO entry for the country harder, “but we are strongly convinced we have to continue this way and that we will be a NATO member.”

Saakashvili, a U.S.-educated lawyer, came to power in the 2003 “Rose Revolution” backed by the U.S. He vowed to bring South Ossetia and two other separatist regions under central control in a challenge to Russia.

Russian Passports

South Ossetia has a population of about 70,000 and is connected to Russia’s North Ossetia region by a tunnel through the Caucasus Mountains. Most residents hold Russian passports.

Georgia is a key link in a U.S.-backed “southern energy corridor” that connects the Caspian Sea region with world markets, bypassing Russia. The BP Plc-led Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline to Turkey runs about 100 kilometers (60 miles) south of the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali.

The U.S. seeks to connect Central Asia natural gas supplies with European markets, skirting Russia in an attempt to weaken the grip of Russia’s state-run OAO Gazprom energy company. One planned pipeline route runs from the Georgia-Turkey border.

NATO in April committed itself to bringing Georgia into the alliance without providing a timeframe or a clear path toward membership — as Bush had pushed for — out of concern it would antagonize Russia. Putin has called the expansion of NATO toward Russian frontiers a “direct threat” and likened South Ossetia’s drive for independence to Kosovo’s from Serbia.

Kosovo Precedent?

Sergei Mironov, a Putin ally who heads Russia’s upper house of parliament, said the fighting is “grounds” to consider South Ossetia’s appeal for international recognition, which cited Kosovo as a precedent, Interfax reported.

Russia hasn’t recognized Kosovo since its declaration of independence.

The ruble dropped the most against the dollar in 8 1/2 years and Russian stocks tumbled yesterday on concern the fighting would worsen.

“This could be a prolonged and bloody conflict with an unpredictable end,” said Pavel Felgenhauer, an independent military analyst in Moscow.

Hunter said flawed diplomacy was in part responsible for the clash. “This is an issue that was allowed to get out of hand by people who haven’t thought through what NATO membership really means, and on the Russian side doing too much muscle flexing over a country that is a pretty small place,” he said.

From Russia With Love?

Tom Skypek — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 20:49:20 +0000

Henry Kissinger wrote an interesting piece in today’s Washington Post on the future of U.S.-Russian relations under the leadership of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Kissinger is optimistic about the future of the relationship between to the two states, even though relations have cooled in recent years between President Bush and former President Vladimir Putin. In fact, Kissinger argues that Medvedev’s Kremlin may be quite different than that of his predecessor’s:

Conventional wisdom treated Medvedev’s inauguration as president of the Russian Federation as a continuation of President Vladimir Putin’s two terms of Kremlin dominance and assertive foreign policy. But after recently visiting Moscow, where I met with leading political personalities as well as those in business and intellectual circles, I am convinced that this judgment is premature.

Obviously, it is too soon to tell how Medvedev will govern. But he is, after all, Putin’s hand-picked successor and a loyal acolyte. Putin remains a very popular leader in Russia. As Kissinger explains, “He [Putin] is seen by most Russians as the leader who overcame the humiliation and chaos of the 1990s, when the Russian state, economy, ideology and empire collapsed.” What are Medvedev’s incentives to dramatically change course? Does he have any?

Kissinger gives the Bush administration and the presidential candidates a piece of advice:

What are the implications for American foreign policy? During the next several months, Russia will be working out the practical means of the distinction between design and implementation of national security policy. The Bush administration and the presidential candidates would be wise to give Moscow space to do so and restrain public comment.

Issues like missile defense, nuclear modernizaiton and proliferation will continue to strain relations between Washington and Moscow. The interests of the U.S. and Russia are not all mutually exclusive but there are many areas that diverge. Later today, after Kissinger’s article was published the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement that might shed some more light on this issue: “If a U.S. strategic anti-missile shield starts to be deployed near our borders, we will be forced to react not in a diplomatic fashion but with military-technical means.” I’m not an expert at decoding Russian rhetoric, but that seems similar to something Putin’s Foreign Ministry would have released.