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Friday, August 22nd, 2008 at 12:42pm

Assessing the Russia – Georgia Conflict

Posted by Bryan Armor in American Foreign Policy, Russia

Initial assessments of the military effectiveness of the Russian and Georgian forces are being written. Over to the blogosphere!

Robert Farley:

The Georgians did have some technical advantages, such as nightfighting gear on their tanks and attack aircraft. While this article indicates that the Georgian T-72s (with the nightfighting gear and some other technical upgrades) were superior to their Russian counterparts, I’m not convinced; the Russians seem to have been employing more modern T-80s, which were equipped with reactive armor (this explodes outwards when hit, to deflect the force of the blow), while the Georgian tanks were not. David Axe suggests that this enabled the Russian tanks to massacre their Georgian counterparts (80% losses) in open battle. However, Axe also points…

1 Comment Tags: David Axe, Popular Mechanics

Thursday, August 21st, 2008 at 2:20pm

Russia as a Strategic Partner?

Posted by Tom Skypek in American Foreign Policy, China, Russia, The American Presidency

The other day Thomas P.M. Barnett asked whether or not Russia could eventually be a strategic partner for United States. He argued that Washington’s reaction to Russia’s invasion of Georgia has been overly emotional:

Frankly, putting the political and strategic implications aside for a minute, Russia’s intervention in Georgia should strike us as more of a turn-on than turn-off. In the past, I’ve tended to write Russia off as a strategic partner not because the incentives weren’t there but because the military and governmental capabilities had seemingly atrophied to such a profound degree. Georgia can be seen as disproving that perception.

I mean, if you want strategic allies who can go places and do stuff in…

2 Comments Tags: China, Georgia Train and Equip (GTEP), Russia, Thomas P.M. Barnett

Wednesday, August 20th, 2008 at 7:45pm

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

Posted by Tom Skypek in Media, Russia

Here’s a great article on the late Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn by Ilan Berman of the American Foreign Policy Council .

No Comments Tags: Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, Ilan Berman, NRO

Wednesday, August 20th, 2008 at 3:06pm

More Belligerent Rhetoric from the Kremlin

Posted by Tom Skypek in American Foreign Policy, Russia, The American Presidency

Moscow keeps upping the ante. Today, the Kremlin announced that it is willing to use means other than diplomacy to respond to further development of the U.S. missile defense system in Poland. According to the Associated Press,

Russia lashed out at the United States on Wednesday over a missile defense deal with Poland and warned ominously that Moscow’s response to further development of the missile shield would go beyond diplomacy.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry said the U.S. missile shield plans are clearly aimed at weakening Russia, calling them part of growing “U.S. efforts to change the strategic balance of power in its favor.”

Russia’s invasion of Georgia and its increasingly belligerent rhetoric highlight the challenge the next president will face in…

No Comments Tags: Barack Obama, Dmitry Medvedev, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Missile Defense, Vladimir Putin

Sunday, August 17th, 2008 at 5:08am

Robert Kagan and The Return of History

Posted by Tom Skypek in American Foreign Policy, China, Russia

After the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s, some defense analysts and international relations scholars believed that a new, peaceful era would emerge. One scholar, Francis Fukuyama, built his career on this idealistic hypothesis (which he now backed away from). He wrote a an article in 1989 entitled “The End of History?” which concluded that liberal democracy had triumphed over authoritarian forms of government. In an article yesterday, Robert Kagan examined the growing power of the authoritarian regimes of Moscow and Beijing and the “return of history”:

One wonders whether Russia’s invasion of Georgia will finally end the dreamy complacency that took hold of the world’s democracies after the close of the Cold War. The collapse of the Soviet…

No Comments Tags: China, Francis Fukuyama, Robert Kagan, Russia

Tuesday, August 12th, 2008 at 6:42pm

McCain would back Georgian Entry into NATO

Posted by Tom Skypek in American Foreign Policy, Russia

Story from AFP:

Republican White House contender John McCain said Tuesday he would support Georgia’s bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) if he is elected president in November.

“I would move forward at the right time with the application for membership in NATO by Georgia,” McCain told Fox News television.

“As you know, through the NATO membership, that if a member nation is attacked, it is viewed as an attack on all,” said the Arizona senator, alluding to Russia’s military aggression on Georgia.

“We don’t have, I think, right now, the ability to intervene in any way except in a humanitarian, economic way, and do what we can to help the Georgians,” he added.

McCain, 71, also reiterated his call for…

No Comments Tags: John McCain

Tuesday, August 12th, 2008 at 3:28pm

NATO and the Georgia-Russia Conflict

Posted by Tom Skypek in Russia

Morton Abramowitz wrote an interesting article for today’s online edition of the National Interest, raising an important question about NATO’s willingness to allow a small state, emerging from the shadow of the Iron Curtain to be routed by a resurgent Russia:

The time is now ripe for NATO to also consider how it allowed a small state (and aspiring NATO partner) to be shattered and to reach a reckoning with Russia’s abusive behavior. All that requires some historical perspective, and that is difficult given the posturing, piety and self-justification permeating our public discussion. Posturing and piety are indeed an essential element of policy making in democratic countries; they are not substitutes for policy…

…Russia has gone well beyond merely “protecting their…

No Comments Tags: Georgia, NATO

Saturday, August 9th, 2008 at 4:29pm

The Politico-Military Objectives of the Georgian and Russian Leadership

Posted by Reggie Gibbs in Iran, Russia, Terrorism

I wrote to some of you yesterday about what I thought the objectives were for both sides of this conflict. I still think these hold pretty much true. Just to rehash:

Russia: Toss the Georgians out of South Ossetia, and embarrass them enough so that they (the Russians) maintain de facto control over South Ossetia, while leveraging their position in Abkhazia and throughout the southern Caucasus region in general

Georgia: Bloody the Russians bad enough, or make the case that they (the Russians) have committed a.) multiple human rights violations and/or war crimes and b.) overreached in their operations, that the international community will get involved and apply pressure to put a truly international and neutral peacekeeping force in South Ossetia. If…

2 Comments Tags: Georgia, Russia, Russia Today, South Ossetia

Saturday, August 9th, 2008 at 2:52pm

Russia v Georgia

Posted by Bryan Armor in Russia

First, a few updates.

While it is unclear yet whether there have been any major engagements between Russian and Georgia forces, some sources are reporting that the Russian armored units that crossed into South Ossetia via the Roki Tunnel yesterday are moving into Tskhinvali:

Osinform in Russian 1248 GMT 09 Aug 08
A tank attack on Tskhinvali is under way at the moment. Two Georgian tanks have been knocked out in Gafeza Street, and another tank has been knocked out in Dzhioyev Avenue, Osinform news agency reports. Russian tanks are moving toward Tskhinvali.

These forward units, likely from the 19th Motor Rifle Division out of Vladikavkaz, are being reinforced by Russian airborne elements, among them the 76th Pskov Airborne Division:

Various sources reported Russian troop…

No Comments Tags: Russia, South Ossetia

Saturday, August 9th, 2008 at 5:38am

Military Conflict Continues Between Russia and Georgia

Posted by Tom Skypek in Russia

Defense analysts who once believed that Dmitry Medvedev’s Kremlin would differ from Vladimir Putin’s now have their answer. Russia needs to withdraw its forces from Georgia immediately. Here’s an article from Bloomberg News:

Russia Is Waging `Full-Scale War’ Over S. Ossetia, Georgia Says
By Alex Nicholson

Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) — Georgia accused Russia of waging “full-scale war,” as Russian troops took control of the capital of the separatist South Ossetia region, rejecting calls by the international community for an immediate cease-fire.

“Georgia is under military aggression of the Russian federation,” Georgian Security Council secretary Kakha Lomaia told reporters in a conference call today.

Ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet moved toward Abkhazia, another separatist region, and Russian…

No Comments Tags: Dmitry Medvedev, Georgia, Russia, South Ossetia, Vladimir Putin

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