It appears to be just a matter of time before Iran possesses an operational nuclear weapons capability. While the United Nations Security Council recently passed its fourth round of sanctions against Iran, if history is any guide, it is unlikely that this sanctions package will be any more effective than the previous three. Each of these sanctions packages have failed to achieve their stated objective of stopping Iran’s production of nuclear fuel. The options for stopping Iran are dwindling–as is time. There are, in fact, no attractive options for U.S. policymakers. These include: (1) accept a nuclear-armed Iran, (2) continue with sanctions, (3) support an Israeli military strike against Iran’s nuclear weapons complex, (4) launch a U.S.-led military strike…
Archive for the ‘Iran’ Category
Strange Bedfellows: Saudi Arabia and Israel
Further evidence that international politics makes strange bedfellows. From The Times:
Saudi Arabia has conducted tests to stand down its air defences to enable Israeli jets to make a bombing raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities, The Times can reveal.
In the week that the UN Security Council imposed a new round of sanctions on Tehran, defence sources in the Gulf say that Riyadh has agreed to allow Israel to use a narrow corridor of its airspace in the north of the country to shorten the distance for a bombing run on Iran.
To ensure the Israeli bombers pass unmolested, Riyadh has carried out tests to make certain its own jets are not scrambled and missile defence systems not activated. Once the Israelis are…
Iranian Official: Iran Could Escort Convoys
You can always count on the regime in Tehran to fan the flames. According to the Guardian, “Iran has warned that it could send Revolutionary Guard naval units to escort humanitarian aid convoys seeking to break the Israeli blockade of Gaza–a move that would certainly be challenged by Israel.” This would obviously add insult to injury and create significant escalation concerns. Unfortunately, it’s not to difficult to imagine a number of potential conflict scenarios in the Middle East where a skirmish quickly devolves into a high-intensity, regional conflict.
How the Obama administration’s lack of credibility is weakening U.S. national security
Since January 20, 2009, American credibility has taken a back seat to the Obama administration’s quest for international popularity. During his trips to the Middle East and Asia last year, President Obama seemed more interested in bolstering his approval ratings abroad than advancing American interests. Last week it was reported that the Obama administration downgraded the priority placed on intelligence collection for China in an effort to increase cooperation with Beijing. This move was made despite the fact that Chinese cyberattacks against the U.S. are on the rise and the leadership in Beijing remains reticent about its massive military modernization program.
Unfortunately, U.S. national security is more dependent on the credibility of American power—and the words and policies of its…
Tim Marshall on Iran
Doesn’t it feel like we’ve been through this Kabuki dance before with the North Koreans? Long, drawn out negotiations that eventually fail to achieve their objective. In order to achieve a satisfactory outcome in the world of diplomacy, you need an honest bargaining partner. It turns out that North Korea was not an honest partner. Does anyone really think that Iran is an honest bargaining partner? If I’m the leadership in Tehran, I’m going to string along the international community, giving the appearance that I’m interested in making a deal–as I rigorously pursue a nuclear weapons capability. Here’s a good report from Tim Marshall of Sky News:
United Against Nuclear Iran
Check out this new organization which was launched just this week. Be sure to sign the petition. A nuclear-armed Iran is not in the interest of the United States.
“Tiny”
Another reminder of just how problematic an Obama presidency would be.
The Politico-Military Objectives of the Georgian and Russian Leadership
I wrote to some of you yesterday about what I thought the objectives were for both sides of this conflict. I still think these hold pretty much true. Just to rehash:
Russia: Toss the Georgians out of South Ossetia, and embarrass them enough so that they (the Russians) maintain de facto control over South Ossetia, while leveraging their position in Abkhazia and throughout the southern Caucasus region in general
Georgia: Bloody the Russians bad enough, or make the case that they (the Russians) have committed a.) multiple human rights violations and/or war crimes and b.) overreached in their operations, that the international community will get involved and apply pressure to put a truly international and neutral peacekeeping force in South Ossetia. If…
The Iran Problem
Dealing with Iran will be a major foreign policy challenge for the next administration. And as Sen. Clinton stated repeatedly throughout the Democratic primary, the United States needs a president who can lead on day one. Iran’s latest series of missile tests only reaffirms the need for the United States to emplace missile interceptors in Europe. The successful shoot down of a falling satellite earlier this year by the Department of Defense validated the missile defense system, which is still wrongfully derided by critics.
It is unclear what the Iranian leadership believes it gains by conducting these provocative tests and continuing to propagate belligerent rhetoric. It is probably an effort to bolster its deterrence posture. Unfortunately, Iran only increases the risk of…