Ilan Berman, a noted expert on Iran and Vice President for Policy at the American Foreign Policy Council, has a great piece in today’s Defense News on the Obama administration’s (mis)handling of U.S. nuclear policy. Berman reminds us that both Russia and China are modernizing their strategic forces while the U.S. weapons complex is eroding:
Indeed, practically every declared nuclear weapon state is engaged in a serious modernization of its strategic arsenal. The United States, by contrast, has allowed its strategic infrastructure to atrophy since the end of the Cold War.
The results of this neglect are striking, as scholars Bradley Thayer and Thomas Skypek have detailed in a pair of studies. America’s ICBM force is aging rapidly, and the retirement of long-range missiles such as the Minuteman and Peacekeeper in the years ahead will cause a major constriction in the U.S. ballistic missile arsenal, with no replacements in sight. Meanwhile, the U.S. bomber fleet has shrunk by nearly two-thirds since 2001.
An aging work force and poor incentives for science and technology education also raise the possibility that the current decline could become irreversible unless major investments are made, and soon.
The White House doesn’t seem overly concerned by this state of affairs. While some in the Obama administration appear to understand the imperative of nuclear force modernization – Defense Secretary Robert Gates, for one, has emerged as a champion of the Reliable Replacement Warhead program currently languishing in Congress – the prevailing official zeitgeist is squarely in favor of arms control and disarmament.
This trend is deeply troubling, as I’ve noted on multiple occasions. If this situation is not rectified, the ramifications for U.S. national security will be severe. It will be interesting to see how this policy debate unfolds in the coming months as the results of the Nuclear Posture Review are briefed to Congress and the administration continues to work with Russia to carve out a follow-on to START.