I wrote to some of you yesterday about what I thought the objectives were for both sides of this conflict. I still think these hold pretty much true. Just to rehash:

Russia: Toss the Georgians out of South Ossetia, and embarrass them enough so that they (the Russians) maintain de facto control over South Ossetia, while leveraging their position in Abkhazia and throughout the southern Caucasus region in general

Georgia: Bloody the Russians bad enough, or make the case that they (the Russians) have committed a.) multiple human rights violations and/or war crimes and b.) overreached in their operations, that the international community will get involved and apply pressure to put a truly international and neutral peacekeeping force in South Ossetia. If the Georgians can accomplish this, it will only be a matter of time (years though) before South Ossetia is incorporated back into Georgia.

As for the United States and Europe, the most the they can do right now is put pressure on Russia to stop. This won’t matter as long Russia feels they have the upper hand. They’ll keep going until the Georgians are out of South Ossetia. But, if the Russians start suffering a losses, they’ll start suing for peace. Regardless, this will continue to get bloodier before it gets better.

Georgian soldiers near a bombed building in Gori on Saturday. Courtesy: Gleb Garanich/Reuters

A few updates and my thoughts on them:

The Russian government is reporting they have won back control of South Ossetia’s capital, Tskhinvali. The Georgians are denying this, but I think the Russians are probably telling the truth in this instance, although its murky. Eyewitness reports have said to have seen no Georgian troops in Tskinvali since this morning. However, Russia Today is also reporting that suburbs in Tskhinvali are still being shelled by Georgian artillery units. Hence, the Russians are trying to paint the picture that the Georgians are in full retreat. I don’t believe this is the case. What it sounds like to me right now is that the Russians continue to have the upper-hand because the Georgians underestimated the amount of troops, tanks, and general military might the Russians had waiting in North Ossetia in the event of war. However, as I said yesterday, the Georgians are no slouches. My guess is they’re still off-balance, but are attempting to regroup and we may see a pretty powerful counterattack in the next 24 hours.

Regarding the Russians throwing a lot at this, this is just one more point to bolster the argument that the Russians were the true provocateurs in all of this. As Ralph Peters says in his piece today in the New York Post (I’ll link it below), if the Russians hadn’t been aiming for a fight, there is no way they would have had this many troops and equipment ready to go- at least not this much equipment that actually worked, or troops of sufficient caliber to operate like they are. The Russian military, plain and simple, is just not this good on this short a notice. The Georgians may have “invaded” so-to-speak, but they didn’t, from my perspective, do it without sufficient cause.

Russia Today reports Abkhazian rebels have attacked Georgian units in the Kodori Gorge. If this true, this is really bad, and could mean this conflict is spreading throughout Georgia pretty quickly.

Georgia has pulled its 2,000 troops out of Iraq. What this means for us, and what it means for Georgia:

• For US: Difficulties in the short-term, not too much to worry about in the long run. We’ll have to shift some units from elsewhere, perhaps, and they’re tours may get extended by a few months. However, I think this is another opportunity for the Iraqi Army to step up to the plate and show the world once again how far they have come
• For the Georgians: Could mean a couple of things. First, they believe they’re in this fight for a long while and will actually need the additional combat-ready forces soon. Second, Georgia declared martial law last night, so they’ll need the additional troops to enforce that. Third, as noted above, Abkhazia may be flaring back up. Bottom line, the troops they have in Iraq are good and they need them pretty quickly to deal with any number of issues. I hope we’ll see them back in Iraq, but it’s doubtful we will.
• Putin left Beijing and is now in North Ossetia to ostensibly care for Ossetian refugees. Whatever. However, nothing too unusual about this I think. The only nugget that I may suggest is that there may be angst in the Kremlin that this could sour pretty fast for the Russians? Just a thought. Medvedev is still in Moscow.

For our Presidential Candidates and their responses, McCain’s was right now, Obama’s less than impressive demonstrating once again who will play hardball with aggressors and who will sit down, hold hands, and talk about feelings. McCain has made strong statements regarding Russia in the past and is under no illusion what the nature of the government is in the Kremlin right now. Obama has no clue where the Kremlin is.

Here are some good pieces on the conflict that came out this morning.

• Ralph Peters agrees with my assessment from yesterday that the Russians, if this thing goes on, will find out just how good the Georgian military is.
• Anne Applebaum, whom I have a lot of respect for, takes a somewhat different view stating clearly she thinks the Georgians are in over their head.
• In addition to the US news sites and the BBC, I would also recommend keeping an eye on Russia Today; it’s been criticized as being the “mouthpiece of the Kremlin.” It certainly is pro-Russian, but they do some decent reporting also that is factually correct, though at times obviously spun.