According to the most recent Nuclear Notebook published in the July/August issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Robert S. Norris and Hans M. Kristensen examine China’s nuclear forces in 2008.  They identify three important developments: 

• China continues to modernize its strategic nuclear forces
• China has deployed two new long-range ICBMs, the DF-31 and the DF-31A
• China is producing up to four new SSBNs

Beijing’s maritime investments are especially concerning.  Nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) are survivable weapons platforms which provide an array of capabilities beyond what is required for China’s domestic security.  A robust SSBN fleet will enable China to project power both regionally and globally.

Increased transparency on the part of Beijing would help to allay concerns over its rising defense budget and nuclear modernization efforts.  If China is serious about rising peacefully, it should increase transparency. How should an international observer interpret Beijing’s unexplained but growing investment?  Beijing’s declared defense outlays are around $60M. The U.S. government puts the actual figure between $100 – $140M. Chinese military strategy is rooted in the art of deception, so it would be imprudent to simply assume that these expenditures are for benign purposes.  Recall the words of Sun Tzu in the Art of War:  “All warfare is based on deception.”

These two issues-the defense budget and its nuclear modernization efforts-are inextricably linked. It’s a matter of transparency. China is a sovereign state and will develop its forces as its leadership sees fit. But it is disingenuous for Beijing to talk about a peaceful rise as its defense budget continues to swell and they procure systems like SSBNs, which have a singular purpose:  power projection.  This trend should be watched closely by Washington and its friends. If this trend continues, it could seriously alter the military balance in the region.