Friday, July 11th, 2008 at 2:15am

The Iran Problem

Posted by Tom Skypek

Dealing with Iran will be a major foreign policy challenge for the next administration.  And as Sen. Clinton stated repeatedly throughout the Democratic primary, the United States needs a president who can lead on day one.  Iran’s latest series of missile tests only reaffirms the need for the United States to emplace missile interceptors in Europe.  The successful shoot down of a falling satellite earlier this year by the Department of Defense validated the missile defense system, which is still wrongfully derided by critics.    

It is unclear what the Iranian leadership believes it gains by conducting these provocative tests and continuing to propagate belligerent rhetoric.  It is probably an effort to bolster its deterrence posture.  Unfortunately, Iran only increases the risk of miscommunication and thus increases the risk of conflict.  Iran test fired a new iteration of its long-range missile, the Shahab-3.  It is believed to have a range of 1,250 miles and is capable of carrying a one-ton conventional warhead.  Sen. McCain understands the threat Iran poses to U.S. interests and unlike Sen. Obama, he has a plan to contain Tehran.  Yesterday, Sen. McCain issued a statement:

Iran’s most recent missile tests demonstrate again the dangers it poses to its neighbors and to the wider region, especially Israel. Ballistic missile testing coupled with Iran’s continued refusal to cease its nuclear activities should unite the international community in efforts to counter Iran’s dangerous ambitions. Iran’s missile tests also demonstrate the need for effective missile defense now and in the future, and this includes missile defense in Europe as is planned with the Czech Republic and Poland. Working with our European and regional allies is the best way to meet the threat posed by Iran, not unilateral concessions that undermine multilateral diplomacy.

Sen. Obama, on the other hand, urged “diplomacy.”  Certainly diplomacy has its place, but years of multilateral engagement with our European partners have failed to change Tehran’s behavior, so why would Sen. Obama think more diplomacy would work when he’s president?  To think that bilateral engagement is appropriate in this situation is naïve and dangerous.  Meeting directly with the Iranian leadership will only provide them with undeserved legitimacy.  Sen. Obama has issued several confused statements regarding Cold War diplomacy, wrongly conflating the diplomatic efforts of two very different eras.  “Iran, Cuba, Venezuela–these countries are tiny compared to the Soviet Union. They don’t pose a serious threat to us the way the Soviet Union posed a threat to us. And yet we were willing to talk to the Soviet Union at the time when they were saying, ‘We’re going to wipe you off the planet.”  These are words you’d expect from an undergraduate writing a term paper for an International Relations course, not of a serious presidential candidate. 

The threat from Iran’s nuclear program is real and it is grave. As president, I will do everything in my power to eliminate that threat, and that must begin with direct, aggressive, and sustained diplomacy.

What’s most concerning is that Sen. Obama hasn’t held a consistent position on Iran.  One month he argues that the threat from Iran is exaggerated and then two months later he characterizes the threat as “real” and “grave.”  Let us not forget that Iran has supplied materiel to insurrgents in Iraq which has resulted in the deaths of American servicemen.  Iran poses a problem on several fronts.  The next president must be prepared to deal with th Iran problem on January 20, 2009.

4 Responses to “The Iran Problem”

  1. Mark says:

    Tom:

    Interesting read. Af few point specific to Missile Defense program.

    The DOD “test” employed a ship launched SM-3 (I believe) which unlike the ground based interceptor program is a well established and proven concept. Missile defense from an military utility perspective is a difficult one to assess. I contend that the current policy of building out the full interceptor package at this time is not a good idea. Its not fully proven, its utiliy is at present time limited to very specific circumstances and lastly its ridiculously expensive.

    Whenever I hear about proponents of the GMD (which is the ground component of BMDS) I respond the same way I did with JSF guys. I just gotta ask, “So what don’t you want”. At a time when the military is broke do you really buy the system or do you buy body armor?

    I would have stuck with the original (gasp!) Clinton plan which called for a build out of the sensors and C2. That has lots of proven utility and leave the shooting to Aegis and PAC3 and THAAD (2 or which are proven, working systems)

  2. Goldwater says:

    Good article.

    I think part of Iran’s plan is laying claim to the unofficial leader of the region. After Nasser, Arafat and Saddam, there always seems to another leader stepping up to defy both the Israelis and the West. As you say though, the saber rattling can lead to miscommunication. By ejecting weapons inspectors Saddam did nothing but increase his own perceived guilt.

  3. Tom Skypek says:

    Mark, I think there are certain elements of the envisioned BMD system that have feasibility issues, like the ABL. I don’t think the technology is quite mature enough yet for ABL which is why there have been so many cost overruns. These elements need to be reevaluated. I think we differ on the overall robustness of the missile defense system and how defense dollars should be spent. I think BMD should be a top defense priority and is worthy of significant funding. Others place BMD much lower on DoD’s priority list. The original White House champion of hit-to-kill technology was none other than Ronald Reagan. It’s too bad that he was derided at the time and this fact was largely forgotten when DoD shot down the falling satellite earlier this year.

    Goldwater, I agree. I think the Iranian leadership views its country as a regional hegemon, which can balance against U.S. power in the region.

  4. Mark says:

    Yeah ABL is likely not there but neither is the ground based interceptors. As I pointed out they didn’t shoot down that missile. Reagan may have come up with Star Wars but nothing got built, mainly cause even his own people felt it was a propaganda spending ploy not an actual working system.

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